Some sires have an ability to pass on genes to their fillies that translates into great success for the offspring of these broodmares. We examined the statistics of broodmare success for the 20 most popular broodmare sires over their last 5 racing crops (2004 to 2000). We also examined the trend over time to see whether some broodmare sires were doing better than others. Our measure of success was the statistic showing what % of the offspring had earned $100,000 or more. We also looked at what % of the offspring had a record better than 1:55.

We found the following:

Top 5 broodmare sires:
1. Artsplace
2. Matts Scooter
3. Jate Lobell
4. Beach Towel
5. Camluck

One interesting statistic was the gap between Camluck and Artsplace mares – Artsplace mares did more than 50% better than Camluck mares in producing offspring who won over $100,000.
As to trends, we measured where each broodmare sire stood in the rankings for each of the 5 years. Based on this analysis, the up and coming broodmare sires are:

1. Cams Card Shark
2. Jennas Beach boy

The broodmare sires that seem to be slipping are:

1. Jate Lobell
2. Camluck
3. Dragons Lair
4. Western Hanover.

If you want further details, just send me an email: kmorden@oakknollstables.com

In any yearling sale there are always a small group of yearlings who command the highest prices and a great number of yearlings only attract mediocre to low prices. What could account for this tremendous range? We looked at a limited number of the highest priced yearlings from the major sales in 2006 from a number of top sires (Artiscape, Astreos, Real Desire, Bettors Delight, etc.) . We then compared their pedigrees to $10,000 yearlings from exactly the same sires. We found 2 measurements which were significant. The most obvious one was the average foal earnings from the 2nd dam. The other measure was the number of crosses in the sire and mare lines. For this, we assigned a numeric value to every duplicate horse occurrence and called it the "Average Cross Score".

We found the following:

Category	Ave. Sale Price	Ave. Foal Earnings of 2nd Dam	Ave. Cross Score
High priced yearlings	$130,000	$135,000	1.2
Lower priced yearlings	$10,000	$76,000	.9
% Difference	n/a	78%	33%

In an earlier study we did we had already identified 2nd dam foal earnings as a powerful indicator of a yearlings future success. Buyers obviously agree with this. The connection between crosses/duplicated horses in the pedigree is not as strong although still significant.

There are many theories about how to breed and identify future performers, none of which give you any absolute guarantees. Some will improve the odds of finding a future star, some are so complex that it would take an immense amount of time to do the homework and some just don’t make logical sense.

Our current understanding of genetics and inheritance of traits has thrown many of the past theories into question. In the final analysis it requires one to physically examine the yearling and make a judgment call about future performance. Prior to that we can both identify and eliminate those yearlings which will or will not perform based on a study of their pedigree.

We want to examine some basic 'truths' and see whether they stand up to scrutiny. For example, all sales catalogues promote 'black type' as the indicator of future performance. Is this a true measure or is it misleading? If a mare has had a top performer (over $100,000) her yearlings usually command a higher price, especially if they are a full brother/sister. The question is - what are the chances that her future offspring will also perform as well?

We took a limited sample of the offspring of sires whose sons are the sires of the leading 2YO’s of 2006. Sires such as Artsplace, Cams Card Shark and No Nukes whose sons – Grinfromeartoear, Bettors Delight, etc. are the leading sires in 2006. In addition we looked at offspring who only earned $30,000. Using these pedigrees we answered the following question.

What is noticeable in the yearling pedigrees that could identify horses like Grinfromeartoear and Bettors Delight and also identify future poor performers?

In the sample we had, we looked at foal number, dam earnings, average offspring earnings of both dam and granddam and auction price. (one thing to keep in mind is that less than 50% of racehorses are ever sold at auction.)
Our study indicated that the Average earnings per foal of the 2nd dam was a direct indicator that there will be a  yearling from the 1st dam who will earn $100m+ .

2nd Dam average earnings per foal	Probability that the 1st Dam will have one or more foals earning $100m+	Probability that you will identify one or more of the $100m foals
$100m plus	75%	38%
$50m - $99m	44%	23%
Less than $50m	31%	17%

As you can see, the probability of identifying which one of the foals is the $100m winner is also related to the 2nd Dam average foal earnings.
One more interesting statistic is the chances of another $100m winner if a 1st Dam has a $100m winner in the first 3 foals.

1st Dam number of $100m+ foals in first 3 foals	Probability that the 1st Dam will have additional foals earning $100m+	Probability that you will identify one or more of the $100m foals
1-3	69%	27%
0	36%	13%

The conclusion that we can reach is:

1. Bid on foals whose 2nd Dam has average foal earnings of $50m+.
2. If the 1st Dam does not have any $100m foals in the first 3 foals, do not bid on any other of her foals.

We compared the yearling sale prices with the next 2 years earnings of the same horses for both 1998 and 2002 foals. Some results of the research were: In 1998 only 25% of the foals registered were sold at auction compared to 32% in 2002. However, there were 1022 foals of 2002 sold at auction compared to 612 in 1998 – a 67% increase!
The quality of the 2002 foals was much poorer than in 1998. The foals of 1998 sold for a total of $9,700,000 and earned $27,200,000 for a return of 180%. The foals of 2002 sold for $13,800,000 but only earned $19,200,000 for a return of 39%. The 1998 crop had 24% who earned over $50,000 while the 2002 crop only had 7%. On paper you had a much better chance of making money with lower priced yearlings:

• Yearlings that cost over $50,000 in both years barely made their money back
• Yearlings of 2002 that cost $25,000 - $50,000 only earned back 50% of their purchase price while yearlings of 1998 in that price range won double their purchase price
• Yearlings under $25,000 in 2002 won back double their auction price while yearlings of 1998 won back 4 times their purchase price

On paper the yearlings who sold for less than $17,000 gave you the greater return (1998 265%, 2002 83%). However, if you add the cost of getting the yearlings to the races and paying for training costs (minimum of $10,000 per year), the lower priced yearlings will cost you money. The biggest gamble appears to be in the over $50,000 category. Despite some great performers these purchases rarely return the purchase price. The best price range to buy in is the $17,000 - $25,000 range since in each of these years it has resulted in a positive return, even after allowing for the costs of getting the yearlings to the races.

In the February/06 issue of Trot Magazine, Ralph Sucee had an interesting article on the birth order of the industries million dollar winners. There are 233 millionaire pacers of which 66% were foals number 1 to 4 and a whopping 82% were foals 1 to 6. Breeding and racing can be regarded as a business of chance which means that anything which improves our chances should be followed.
In 1999 Carl Palumbo published a book called "Profiles of Standardbreds Earning $50,000 and Up". He arrived at virtually the same statistics as in the Trot article – 64% were foals number 1 to 4 and 77.5% of the horses were foals number 1 to 6. Carl went a bit further to also analyze the foal number of the dams of the winning horses. He found that 72.8 % of the dams of winning foals were themselves foal number 1 to 5.
For buyers of yearlings, these are important statistics – you substantially increase your odds of owning a high earning horse if you limit your yearling purchases to foals number 1 to 4 from dams who were themselves foal number 1 to 5.
Another of Carl's statistics showed that 80% of the winners came from mares that had raced. Buying foals from unraced mares reduces your odds of success. Of course there are exceptions - Apaches Fame and Astreos come to mind – but you are better off playing the odds than going against them.

We have done an analysis of the earnings of the pacing yearlings sold at auction in 1999 and in 2003 compared to the ones which were not sold at auction. The results are shown in the table below:

	Average earnings of yearlings
	Sold at auction	Not sold at auction
Foals of 1998	$44,634	$20,383
Foal of 2002	$16,747	$7,070

The figures show that for both years, horses sold at auction earn more money that those that are kept or sold privately. The 2002 figures are much lower than the 1998 figures reflecting the fact that there were substantially more horse bred in 2002 despite the fact that that year included horses such as Village Jolt, Cabrini Hanover, American Ideal and Lady Dillinger. The 1998 crop did not have comparable performers.
Of interest is the fact that the average earnings for the horses sold at auction were below the average prices paid for the yearlings in both years. This will be a subject of another analysis – are auction prices an indicator of future earnings.

In 2002 there were 4,375 foals registered in Canada. In 2005, after 2 years of racing eligibility, only 49% had earned money. Of the total, only 184 or 4.2% had earned over $50,000. This included such standout performers as Village Jolt, Cabrini Hanover, American Ideal, Lady Dillinger and Stonebridge Regal.
The full statistics are:

Earned over $100,000	77	1.8%
$50,000 - $99,999	107	2.4%
$25,000 - $49,999	228	5.2%
$10,000 - $24,999	519	11.9%
Less than $9,999	3,444	78.7%
Total	4,375	100.0%

It is reasonable to assume that if a horse has earned less than $25,000 over 2 years that the owner has probably lost money on the horse (or has not been paid for the time he or she took to breed and train the horse). With such a low chance of success the importance of good breeding and a critical eye for conformation cannot be emphasized enough.

The 17 most successful 3YO's of 2002 earned an average of $720,000 and their dams earned an average of $70,000. The 17 random picked yearlings won an average of $40,000 and their dams earned an average of $40,000. However, 9 of the 17 mares of winners earned less than $20,000 while 11 of 17 random horses' mares earned less than $20,000. Conclusion: higher earning mares produce higher earning horses.